India’s Economy to Expand 7.6% in FY17: RBI

The near-term growth outlook for India seems brighter than last fiscal and the economy is likely to expand at 7.6 per cent in 2016-17, the Reserve Bank said. Overall GVA (gross value added) growth is projected at 7.6 per cent in 2016-17, up from 7.2 per cent last year,” RBI said in its Annual Report 2015-16.Overall GVA (gross value added) growth is projected at 7.6 per cent in 2016-17, up from 7.2

per cent last year,” RBI said in its Annual Report 2015-16.

•> The effects of Brexit on the Indian economy have been relatively muted, including the immediate impact on equity and foreign exchange markets.

•> “Abstracting from these external shocks, the near-term domestic outlook appears somewhat brighter than the outcome for 2015-16,” RBI said.

•> While a durable pick-up in investment activity remains elusive, consumption will continue to provide the main support to aggregate demand and may receive a boost from the revival of rural demand in response to the above-normal and spatially well-distributed southwest monsoon as well as from the seventh pay commissions award.

•> Industrial activity has been in contraction mode in the early months of 2016-17, pulled down by manufacturing and looking ahead, no strong drivers are discernible at this juncture that could engineer a turnaround.

•> “Some support to industrial activity may, however, stem from the recent measures taken by the Government such as 100 per cent FDI in defence, civil aviation, pharmaceuticals and broadcasting,” RBI said.

•> The headline inflation, is expected to trend towards the target of 5 per cent by the last quarter of the year, although at the current juncture, upside risks are prominent.

•> “If the current softness in crude prices proves to be transient and as the output gap continues to close, inflation excluding food and fuel may likely trend upwards and counterbalance the benefit of the expected easing of food inflation,” it said.