Hong Kong politicians seek independence from China in 2047

HONG KONG: The run-up to the Sept. 4 election for Legislative Council is getting tense, and the governments of both Hong Kong and Beijing are watching with keen interest. For the first time, a crop of fresh-faced candidates who cut their political teeth during the pro-democracy Umbrella Movement in 2014 are hoping to bring to the lawmaking body their battle to emancipate Hong Kong from Beijing's increasingly

authoritarian control. The activists, most of whom are in their 20s, no longer believe in the promises of the "one country, two systems" principle set out in the Basic Law, Hong Kong's mini-constitution since Britain handed the territory back to China in 1997. Even after paralyzing major traffic hubs in the city for 79 days in 2014, they failed to obtain any concession to democratize the rules by which the head of Hong Kong's government, the chief executive, is nominated and elected. They concluded from the experience that democracy is impossible in Hong Kong as long as the territory remains under Chinese sovereignty.

These "paratroopers" — as they are affectionately called by supporters in homage to their standing up to police brutality — are now asking for more than they were during the Umbrella Movement, or than the mainstream pro-democracy camp known as the pan-democrats. Two years ago, as protesters, they invoked the Basic Law to demand true universal suffrage and a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong. Today, they are calling for Hong Kong's right to self-determination or even outright independence from China in 2047, when the Basic Law is set to expire.

Edward Leung Tin-kei, arguably the paratrooper with the best chance of securing a seat in LegCo, has been disqualified. He is the eloquent leader of Hong Kong Indigenous, a party that advocates a distinct national identity for the people of Hong Kong. Another aspirant who was sidelined is from the fledgling Hong Kong National Party, which calls for the city to secede from China and become a full-blown nation of its own.

Since being barred from running for LegCo, Edward Leung has joined forces with another young activist who has been allowed to contest a seat: Baggio Leung Chung-hang, the pro-independence leader of the group Youngspiration. Another important new party is Demosisto, which calls for holding a referendum within 10 years to determine Hong Kong's political future after 2047. Demosisto is headed by the 19-year-old Joshua Wong, a mainstay of the Umbrella Movement who, though battle-tested by those protests, is still too young to run in any election.

However many paratroopers are allowed to run for LegCo, their emergence has already changed Hong Kong's political scene. It no longer is a two-way contest between the pro-establishment camp and the pan-democratic camp, both of which endorse some version of the "one country" ideology and, each in its own way, considers itself to be patriotic to the mainland. Hong Kong politics is now a three-way affair, with separatism the new force to be reckoned with.

This development creates some problems for the pro-democracy camp writ large. Internal strife and hair-splitting ideological conflicts — both between the old-school pan-democrats and the paratroopers, and to a lesser extent among the paratroopers themselves — threaten to thin out the vote and weaken the chances of individual opposition candidates against the pro-establishment competition. (Paradoxically, this risk is mitigated by the government's efforts to prevent some paratroopers from entering the race.)

The Hong Kong government, for its part, is hugely unpopular, but has plenty of influential supporters and resources it can use to cow detractors. For example, the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government, Beijing's watchdog organ in Hong Kong, has long been known to covertly manipulate local elections.

Although Demosisto has been allowed to field a candidate for the LegCo election, it is facing inexplicable administrative hurdles to register as an organization, meaning that it cannot open a bank account, among other things. On Monday, the group's leader, Wong, was sentenced to 80 hours of community service after being convicted of unlawful assembly for his involvement in the Umbrella Movement.

Publications once known for their independent-mindedness and liberal views, like Ming Pao and Hong Kong Economic Journal, have recently run editorials denouncing separatism or touting China's national security interests above all else. Both have undergone rounds of management changes over the past few years and have thinned their ranks of commentators known to be sympathetic to the pro-democracy movement. (My own column for Hong Kong Economic Journal, for which I started working in 1991, was abruptly terminated last month.)

All this may seem necessary to the pro-Beijing camp: It is fracturing to an unprecedented degree, with powerful interest groups within it increasingly fighting one another in the open. Rising popular support for the once-radical idea of independence also is a novel, and growing, threat. Even during the Umbrella Movement, advocating independence would have been political suicide. But about 17% of respondents in a recent poll by Chinese University of Hong Kong supported the idea — and in the 15-24 age group, the figure was nearly 40%. The Hong Kong government should also be disturbed by anecdotal evidence suggesting that even among senior citizens the commitment to the "one country" ideology seems to be softening in favor of more separateness between the "two systems."

Of course, any hopes of independence for Hong Kong must be tempered by reservations about its feasibility. After all, Hong Kong depends on China for most of its water supply. There are enough Chinese military units stationed inside and immediately around Hong Kong to quell any separatist movement that would threaten to turn into an uprising. And the recent disqualification of pro-independence candidates from the LegCo election suggests that pro-establishment forces are ready to resort to extraordinary measures against them every step of the way.

But the separatists have steeled themselves. Although the government quelled the Umbrella Movement without giving an inch, the protesters have regrouped and are now fighting back with a new battle cry. The old pan-democrats used to say, "Loyalty for democracy," offering the former in exchange for the latter. The young paratroopers are done waiting: "No democracy? No loyalty."