World trade seen growing 2.4% in 2017, uncertainty weighs: WTO

World trade seen growing (बढ़ रही है) 2.4% in 2017, uncertainty (अनिश्चितता) weighs: WTO

Geneva: Global trade of goods is forecast to grow at 2.4 % in volume terms in 2017 but could also slow to 1.8% if the “uncertainty” about overall macro-economic and trade policies persists

across major industrialized nations, World Trade Organization economists said on Wednesday. faced with strong headwinds in the global economy arising from continued “unpredictable direction of the global economy” and “uncertainty,” the recovery of global trade will hinge on how rapidly the real GDP increases across the world, according to the press release issued by the WTO.  If the real GDP growth at market exchange rates is 2.7% in 2017 and 2.8% in the following year, then the prospects for global trade would improve modestly, the WTO suggested.

As compared to the tepid growth of 1.3% in global trade in volume terms last year, which stemmed from accumulation of several risks, the likely range of trade growth this year is going to hover around 1.8% to 3.6% in 2017, and 2.1% and 4% during 2018 subject to the magnitude of risks arising from uncertainty and unpredictable direction of the global economy, it maintained.

Global exports of goods in dollar terms were valued at $15.46 trillion last year, down 3.3% from the previous year of 2015.

“A spike in inflation leading to higher interest rates, tighter fiscal policies and imposition of measures to curtail trade could all undermine higher trade growth over the next two years,” the WTO cautioned.

Despite positive indications such as an increase in container throughput of major ports and a rise in a key index of world export orders, significant risks arising from “anti-globalization sentiment and the rise of populist political movements” could result in the proliferation of restrictive trade measures. “Narrowly targeted measures would probably not have an appreciable impact on world trade and output, but across the board measures or abandonment of existing trade agreements could damage consumer and business confidence and undermine international trade and environment,” the release suggested.