Saturday 25 June 2016

Good news for India: Brexit to take Fed rate hike off the agenda in ’16

NEW DELHI: The US Federal Reserve, which maintained status-quo on policy rates at the fourth Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington earlier this month, is unlikely to hike rates any more in calendar year 2016 after 'Brexit'. Shockwaves travelled across global financial markets on Friday after the outcome of the UK referendum, in which voters decided to leave the European Union.
Although, Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen said rate hikes would be gradual and data dependent, but recent events might have changed the prospects of future rate hikes by the US Fed altogether. Some analysts are even talking about a rate cut rather than a rate hike. "US Federal Reserve Chair Yellen expressed her concerns about Brexit. Expectations of any interest rate hike by the US Fed is totally off the grid now," Andrew Holland, CEO, Ambit Investment Advisors, told's exit was something that came as a surprise to financial markets across the globe. The tremors will be felt in the coming months as well. The US dollar being the reserve currency of the world, the Fed might have to provide additional liquidity support to foreign central banks so that they could lend support to financial institutions to avoid any crisis. 'Brexit' will trigger uncertainty for the global economy. Global economic recovery was already fragile before 'Brexit' and 'Brexit' and the uncertainty over the future of the EU can further hurt global economic growth. Central banks globally are likely to continue with their accommodative monetary policies for some more time. The US Fed in a statement said it was carefully monitoring the developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks, following the results of the UK referendum. "The Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollar liquidity through its existing swap lines with central banks, as necessary, to address pressures in global funding markets, which could have adverse implications for the US economy," the statement said. "I think raising rates in the US is off the cards now. I do not think that is going to happen anytime soon. I think central banks will potentially support the markets and try to reduce volatility," Punita Kumar Sinha, Managing Partner, Pacific Paradigm Advisors, said in an interview with ET Now. "The number of tools that central banks have is very limited. We are already running negative real interest rates in many countries. How much can they really support beyond a point, that is something of a worry in the long term," she said. What does it mean for emerging markets? No rate cut is definitely good news for emerging markets, as India stands out within this pack on stable macros. "India is the best place among emerging markets and we all know the reason why. And if the monsoon is above normal, it would continue to draw investor interest," said Holland. In the short term, there will be risk-off sentiment, which would mean that safe havens like US dollar and gold will be in focus. As and when risk-on sentiment comes back, India should be a beneficiary of that, say experts. "At this point, emerging markets are really not that much in favour across the world. The big issue that India is facing is the fact that it is still getting clubbed with some of these emerging markets," Shiv Puri, TVF Capital Advisors, said in an interview with ET Now. "We are still fighting our way out of that clubbing as our fundamentals are far superior to most other emerging markets. Post Brexit, we got to see a little more dovish policy coming out of the US Fed, and I really do not think that is bad for emerging markets," Puri said.

No comments:

Post a Comment