Saturday, 11 February 2017

El Nino rears its head again, but confirmation only in April

El Nino rears(उठाना)  its head again, but confirmation (पुष्टीकरण) only in April PUNE: The India Meteorological Department's latest El Nino/La Nina update has indicated a gradual transition to an El Nino-like condition around September — the last month of monsoon. Met officials, however, stressed that a lot of uncertainty prevailed (प्रबल) on the possibility of another El Nino during the latter part of
2017. A clearer picture would emerge (उभरना) only in April. Though uncertainty prevails on the likely impact of the upcoming El Nino-like situation on monsoon, experts reminded that 2014 had witnessed an El Nino-like situation, but it had affected the monsoon that year.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregularly periodical variation (परिवर्तन) in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The warming phase, which is thought to impact India's southwest monsoon, is known as El Nino and the cooling phase is called La Nina. AK Sahai, head, climate research and services, IMD, Pune, told TOI that the forecast indicated that the present weak La Nina conditions were likely to weaken further and "cool ENSO neutral" conditions were likely to establish during the early part of monsoon, followed by "warm ENSO neutral" conditions during the latter part of the season. The warm 'ENSO neutral conditions', in layman's terms, translate to El Nino-like conditions.
DS Pai from the IMD, Pune, said preliminary observations did not indicate any likely impact of these conditions on this year's monsoon. "El Nino-like conditions may be witnessed somewhere around September this year, but we do not expect any impact on this year's monsoon. Future forecasts will give a clearer picture of what will actually happen.

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